The Signal and the Noise: Cash Flow Forecasting in Uncertain Times

The signal and the noise: cash flow forecasting in times of uncertainty – Banque Centrale

From big data tools to Arima models and structural time series, cash forecasting methods are evolving

What is the future of cash? The question has several dimensions. One is philosophical: should people always be able to pay in banknotes or would electronic forms of money suffice? Another is economic: how are changing payment usage patterns affecting the economy, and what does this mean for central bank operations? A third is mathematical: what will demand for cash look like a year from now? To answer this last question, forecasting models are needed. It turns out that the quality of

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